Kick Livestreams/heey guys 2025-11-12 05_51 [9de55837-heey-guys] 480p

She blocked me because the profile picture disappeared.

How come she only put a new photo when I asked her where her photo was?

Very strange.

I could only finish half the fish and chips and have the rest tomorrow lunch.

I can't believe even with how shit Kick pays, they still pay more than YouTube.

Why am I still at my mom's house? Uh, why not?

What's the point going back?

I'm just curious if it's going to be more comfortable to drive. Drive my new car home.

Why were we in Devon?

What? I've been at my mum's house for nearly 2 weeks now.

I'll go back at some point to take out the rubbish and then come back here.

I could come back in December.

Hybrids are expensive. The Toyota C-HR hybrid looks pretty cool, but it's like $20K plus.

Try and do 2 hours. I'll make $12,

get my daily earnings up to—

wow, $40!

Wow!

You know what, I'm kind of trapped in that house now.

Paid 6 months council tax.

I'll probably spend a few weeks there and come back in December here for Christmas.

I'll probably stay here until Christmas.

Might be going to my sister's in-laws, don't know. My mum keeps changing her mind about it.

I want to do Uber Eats, but I'm sick, so I couldn't do it this time.

And every time BeLivery pops up, it gets taken straight away.

They're saying the BBC might actually, um,

go bankrupt and shut down if it ends up having to pay Trump like $100 million.

And then there's like growing

resentment towards having to pay the BBC license. Even Boris Johnson refuses to pay it. So if they lose the BBC license fee and they've got to pay Trump like £100 million, they're going down the toilet.

No more BBC.

There's nothing good on it anyway. They used to have Top Gear and that was it. And they got that baking show, which is so dumb.

Bunch of stupid grannies baking fucking cakes. Got Noel Fielding standing there just so he can go, ready, steady, bake. And he just stands there grinning. Got the easiest job in the world.

I hate that Bake Off show and Strictly Come Dancing. Shit. Got all the programs on there, rubbish granny shows.

All the good shows are online now. Netflix, Disney, Amazon Prime.

Only like ITV for Channel 4 News. Hilia Ebrahimi was on tonight. It's weird because she either looks really old or she looks kind of hot depending on how she does her hair. If she has her hair up, she looks really old. When it's down, she looks really good.

Very confusing.

It's all about the hair, isn't it, at the end of the day?

Shame I didn't get to see my sister, but I'm sick, so unfortunate.

Oh, clear value tax. Government shutdown resolved, but another crisis hits.

2.5 million followers, 1 million monthly podcast listeners. Over 150,000. The government shutdown has now been resolved. The Senate voted on the government funding bill. They needed 60 votes to pass it. How come Mark is not ripping more? 60 to 40, enough to get it through the Senate. 52 Republicans voted in favor and 8 Democrats voted in favor.

So the bill is now advancing to the House of Representatives, and Speaker of the House Johnson has called back the House of Representatives to vote on the bill. The bill is expected to be voted on sometime this week, most likely tomorrow on Wednesday, and it is expected to pass because they just need a simple majority in the

House of Representatives to get it through. Now, once the House of Representatives passes the government funding bill, then it's going to advance to President Trump, and President Trump has backed this bill. Therefore, once he receives it, he's going to sign it. And ultimately, the government shutdown has now been resolved. Yeah. Now with that being said, what is

now the market? Did the Republicans get what they wanted? Did the Democrats get what they wanted? So we're going to dive into this. Dive into my pocket. There are 100 seats in the Senate. The Republicans control 53 of them. To pass a bill in the Senate, they need to get 60 votes. Therefore, even though the Republicans have

the majority in the Senate, they still have to work with the Democrats to get the necessary 60 votes. And the Republicans and Democrats were clashing over the expiring Obamacare subsidies. They're going to expire on December 31st of this year. But to be fair, I mean, they were fighting over many things, but this was the biggest disagreement. This

was their focus. Now here's the agreements. The Senate Republicans promised the Democrats that they'll hold a vote on the Obamacare subsidies, whether to extend them or not. The deal was that they're going to take a vote on this by the second week of December. But I want to bring this to your attention. Just think about it. Yeah,

the agreement is that they're going to vote on this, but is it going to pass? Well, they're saying that the votes on extending the Obamacare subsidies that they're going to do, it is expected to fail in the Senate. And that's why Democratic Party, especially the leaders of the Democrats in the House and the Senate are very upset

with the 8 Democratic senators that voted with the Republicans to reopen the government. Now, I want to tell you this, and this is the crazy part where you're probably going to just want to shake your head in disgust. So you have to realize that this bill is just a temporary government funding bill that's going to keep the

government funded until the end of January. So January 30th of next year. So that's about 2 and a half months away. Away right now. I want you to think about that. No, they're going to vote on the extension of the Obamacare subsidies in December. Right. And that is expected to fail. So what do you think is going

to happen? The Democrats are going to be pissed. And then what do you think is going to happen when January 30th rolls around? The Republicans and Democrats are going to be butting heads again. And then there's a real possibility of another government shutdown. Just 2 and a half months from now. Oh, not again. I'm gonna crash. Get

out before January. Can we please have an honest conversation here? So the government shutdown affected 42 million Americans on SNAP benefits, right? But this is the part of me being honest. The biggest priority, or the biggest concern for the politicians, it wasn't the SNAP benefits, it was the flight delays and cancellations. Why did the flights shut down?

And with Thanksgiving travel right— I get why the airport shut down, the flights shut down. The politicians didn't want to deal with that backlash. That was the biggest— that was their biggest fear. That was the— I can't cancel Thanksgiving to reopen the governments. Now I just want you to think about that, because if they go— oh, spasm—

starting on January 30th, then it's not going to be during peak travel season. And then, well, if you don't have a motivator, then it could end up being worse than this one. It's running through my head right now. And I just want you to know that this was the longest government shutdown for the United States of America.

This surpassed the previous record of 35 days, which was actually during President Trump's first term at the end of 2018. Okay, right now it's still not resolved until President Trump signs it. So we're going on day 43, and I just want to mention this to clarify. So I did make the bet that this fiasco would end by

60 days, which is looking pretty solid right now, to be honest. So yes, I did mention the 40 days, but I backed out of that immediately when I saw the 60-day opportunity. Well, they get paid by the government, and anyone on my Patreon can vouch for me. Uh, I don't really know where the airports get the money.

I thought it's from people buying plane tickets. The recipients that got shortchanged in November, the answer is that it's, it's all going to depend on your state because it is administered at the state level. Like, I wish I could be more specific, but that's the official answer. So here's another question: when are federal employees going to receive

their back pay? 1.4 million federal employees missed their full paycheck in late October. And then you receive a partial paycheck for the previous pay period. So the— okay, so by law, the federal government must issue back pay as soon as possible after the shutdown ends. So the rule is that they're not supposed to wait around and then

add that back pay to your next paycheck. No, that's not how it works. By law, they're supposed to pay it out as soon as possible. Now, regarding the Federal Reserve, I mean, you, you've heard this Before they said that they're going to make their decisions about interest rates based on the data, the jobs reports, data, inflation report,

like that data, data. Okay, so the jobs report didn't come out. Sounds like saying data shutdown. And then the Federal Reserve, they made the decision on October 29th without that data, data. So the jobs report didn't come out. It's supposed to

Things looking up.

Making $5.50 an hour now.

I don't know how I'm gonna survive without using my savings.

Just under 2 months ago. I gave you the stats about how a government shutdown affects the stock markets. Government shutdowns have minimal impact on the stock market, and this time was no exception. So there was no market scare. And as you witnessed, the news of the reopening of the government actually boosted stocks. So the stock— for the

stock market, you saw for yourself, it was a nothing burger. And I'm just saying this because If there's another threat of a government shutdown at the end of January— damn, I spent $2,500 in October. At least if you go according to the stats, you can expect the same thing, minimal impact. So don't let another possible— NASDAQ's ripping.

My account's back to $1,762. So listen, I'm not saying that the stock market can't go down in the short run. I'm just saying that if the stock market does go down around that time frame, then it's Probably for other reasons besides the government shutdown scare. When it comes to GDP, a recent report by Ernst Young is saying

that this shutdown will reduce Q4's GDP by 0.8%. Market's ripping. That's equivalent to approximately $55 billion in lost output. Honestly, I'll tell you this, like, in this wacky world that we live in, bad news is good news. In the investing world. So I, I mean, this is just the way I see it. If GDP is lower, then

that gives more reason for the Federal Reserve to blast the money printer on, blast interest rates even more aggressively. Check this out. Market loves that. They love 1758. It's a crazy world. 1800s tomorrow. It's just different times now, but it is what it is. Like, I'm just being honest. Well, that is the It's expected to pass in

the House very shortly, advance to President Trump. He's gonna sign it, and then I'm gonna win my bet. Please subscribe. Thank you for the support, and I wish you a very nice day. I wonder how much he bet.

I made £32 on my lung.

Another day I made nothing. Lost loads in the beginning, then PM I made it back.

Come on, power hour.

Where's the power?

Broke Asia low, rejected off London high.

Massive rip.

1760. I would be back at 1800 if I didn't lose that 40 on the shorts.

Yeah, I made back all the losses with that long I did before fish and chips.

Bitmain tanking, silver ripping.

Facebook tanking.

Imagine I just didn't touch this for a year. Might be at £5,000 if I just never touched it.

I

don't know how I'm gonna make enough money this month.

I've only made £600 this month.

There's only 20 days left.

Might have to get the bum hole out.

Bum hole to the rescue!

Bum hole millionaire.

嗯，好。 This Black Friday, talk it out live with Gemini. First session about how to capitalize on Wall Street's greatest transport

transformation. No, we're trying to change the way people invest in terms of 1762, only about long term, because I think that's a very common phrase. But we want to get people to think about the supercycles, you know, the things that really matter and drive earnings. So, uh, we appreciate all of your support. Come on, come back here.

I've got a presentation and I'm going to be bringing in Tom Block, who's our head of policy, throughout this presentation. November is going to be an up month. I mean, with a lot of confidence. And the first reason for that is that stocks are up 6 months in a row and it's almost, uh, gonna strengthen the case

for November to be positive. But we know it's going to be choppy. We think it's a choppy first 2 weeks, but then we ultimately end up, you know, over 200 points on the S&P. That would take us past 7,000. Nice. And, um, these are the 6 years that I think are precedent markets. These are the times where

the markets were up May through October. And you can see that the November to December, which is far on the far right, has been positive except in 1936 when the markets basically were flat. But, you know, I think we're in a very different place. That was post-Depression period. We're really in the middle of an upcycle. And, you

know, I still think we're going to be at least 7,000 by year-end, maybe 7,300. And if you think what's like 7,300, ISM is still below 50. ISM's below 50. Never been top of the market when the ISM's under 50. And keep in mind, housing is still undersupplied. Uh, we have built only 13.6 million homes in the past

10 years versus 15 million, um, household formations. That's a shortage. That's opposite of the GFC when you had basically 7.5 million excess homes.

Not enough homes, stocks go up. Those who think valuations are extended, keep in mind Nvidia is trading at only 29 times forward earnings. Costco's at 42.6 and Walmart's 35 times. It's still cheaper to buy Nvidia than to buy, buy Nvidia, a GDP grower. I can get 14 shares. In 1980, Cisco was already at 56 times forward earnings

before getting to 210 times. So I think we're far from a bubble today. Margins are expanding. And I think it's very telling because earlier this year, you remember the consensus from the Fed was that someone has to pay for these tariffs, so inflation would go up and margins would squeeze. But in the third quarter this year, which

is in the full force of tariffs. Companies take 67% of that hit. Earnings grew faster than revenues. 7 out of 11 sectors had margins expand. I've got one share, Nvidia. And there's a fund manager chase that's going to happen into year-end. So if you're going to say— you're going to hear someone tell you everyone's bullish, Tom. That's

not true, because if they were bullish, their performance would be outperforming the S&P this year. And as you can see, 22% of active funds are trailing their benchmark this year. So it's a— it's been a bad year for fund managers. And now we have this huge wall of worry, and this is what I think, um, we have

to be working our way through. And this is where I'm going to bring in Tom Block into the conversation. Why is everyone called Tom? The government shutdown, okay. It is the longest government shutdown in history, 36 days.

And Polymarket is now putting the odds that the shutdown ends next week. So it ended. I'm gonna just sort of bring in Tom Block and ask him to comment on where he thinks things stand, just to sort of state his current views on the shutdown. I know Tom has some very strong views. And then if you could

just talk about the path to ending the shutdown. Well, thank you, Tom. And let me just join the chorus about how much I enjoy working with Fundstrat. Tom and I met at JPMorgan and he was incredibly respected. And then when he left and I had already left a year or two earlier and he asked me to join

Fundstrat, it's just been an honor and a privilege to work with Tom and the great team.

John and Tom. On the issue at hand is that the president called the Republicans in the Senate to the White House today, urged them to do away with the filibuster. I just don't think that's going to happen. Before I worked for JP, I actually worked on Capitol Hill running a congressman's office and a senator's office. In the

Senate office, I really appreciated the reason for the filibuster. The hell's a filibuster? The filibuster is really the tool that the minority can use to try to influence policy. And the Republicans who were there, and John Thune has been very clear, he does not have the votes to— Oh, Willy Buster. And the reason for that is All

the Republicans know that they are not a permanent majority. They will one day be in the minority too, and they will want to use the filibuster to try to influence policies. The Willy Buster. Majority control, which you have in the US House. The filibuster has actually been reformed. So prior to 1975, it was a 2/3 or 66

votes to end the filibuster. And then I think largely because of the civil rights movement, they needed to pass legislation that was being bogged down by Southern Democrats. So when I worked in the Senate in the 1970s, there were really 3 parties. There was the Republicans, there were the Northern Democrats, and the Southern Democrats. Yeah, yeah, yeah.

A few days. Um, as we work our way through this, the second wall of worry is the Fed's hawkish. And this is where I think the Fed may be, uh, misreading some of the incoming data. Now, um, we know that there's a new Fed chair contemplated, um, and it's down to 5 candidates. And, uh, what I find

interesting is that Fed fund futures, okay, the number of cuts in 2026 has not priced in a new Fed because, um, as I've highlighted in the shaded area red, that in May of this year Fed fund futures was pricing 2.6 cuts, um, for 2020. I'm not going anywhere. And, uh, and this is at a period when a

new Fed chair was talked about. And yet the number of cuts has actually stayed at roughly 2.6. In other words, the bond market has not priced in a dovish Fed. It's actually pricing in the same Fed that has made a hawkish cut in October. And why is the Fed saying December is uncertain? I've highlighted this before. They

talked about the fact that the neutral rate is still being Faded. But keep in mind, the neutral rate is dependent on long-term inflation. So the Fed's basically saying we're not cutting because the neutral rate is higher because we think there's more inflation. But this is where— I don't know what my plan is, because when we look at

inflation, um, 75% of the inflation over the last 5 years came from housing, auto insurance, new idea cars. And we've talked about this extensively, that look at shelter costs month over month, and Shiller is back to long— well, actually below long-term trend. So CPI year over year for OER is going to basically tank in the next few

months, falling like a rock. And used car prices fell at the fastest pace in more than 2 years. Hard to think when I'm sick. That's not inflation.

And when I'm back to 100%, Then my brain will work again. And auto insurance year over year is down to 3%, which is falling like a rock. And, you know, there's some repo market stress, but that's delivery once the shutdown ends. And then it's really the mayor mayoral race in New York City. And keep in mind, why

did it end there? That's weird.

Maybe another thing like Kik will come along and save my backside.

Chivalry?

I always land on my feet.

No, my mum didn't suggest anything.

I don't know, my dad never said anything really.

Would you say, well, better get a job then, Daniel?

Time to get a job.

Job my backside. Ah, at least we got a shiv.

Got my new hammer.

Whoa, one-shot kill!

Oh

wow,

gangbang.

What?

You dead.

You dead.

You

dead.

Spawn rate's so slow now.

Wait.

God, hammer does a lot of damage.

Take heed, a mason ram has reached our gate! What?

What?

Whoa, he dead!

No, the gate has fallen! Fall back to the square, brothers! We must defend the town square! I dead.

Oh

yeah, fire.

Keep the Masons out of our square!

Whoa, headshot!

Whoa, hammer's pretty fun.

He

dead.

Oh,

I dead.

Oh

my ass.

Oh.

What?

Informations out of our square.

I

needed that.

What?

He dead.

I dead.

Hold the square from the— wow,

why

is he not helping me?

What, what was that? Nearly got me.

Eat it.

Oh,

oh, brothers, the town square is nearly lost.

Curses! The town square is lost! The Gathlians! Defend the Kinghouse banners!

That just kills the outpost.

Oh.

What?

What?

What?

No, I'm not going to, but congratulations.

This is bad.

You dead.

You dead.

What? What?

Bring it out! We have to take the

gate! Guard the banners upon our walls!

What?

Oh.

What? I hit him with heavy attack. Why didn't he die?

What? Oh, this game's broken.

Oh,

I

killed him.

Well, how does he sweep around me like that? What? I was blocking.

This weapon goes around me.

Get

out my way, fucking blue guy.

Killed him.

Stupid team keeps getting my way.

Fucking die.

Oh, he's on fire.

What? They swing so fast.

Eat

that. What?

Uh.

This team sucks. The Masons are within our walls.

Defend the trebuchets and must remain firing upon their ships. Fucking hell.

Oh, I got him.

What?

You're the same, my brother.

I need the

He

dead.

What?

They just come out of nowhere.

What?

As soon as I go there, I fucking die.

That team was way too good.

The desecration of Galencourt.

A hammer's quite hard to use.

Slay them all! Blood is my fate and the land is my canvas!

Change my weapon.

Oh, it does more damage if you use the knife.

Protect the city of Galencourt and safeguard Phaedron's tomb. Oh, it does more damage against knights. Oh, I get it. Agathians, defend the outer fortifications.

I did.

Man, this level looks nice.

What?

Allez.

Defend the fortifications!

Our fortifications are being overrun!

The outer fortifications have been occupied! Fall back to the docks! Defend the flagships! Do not allow the Masons to disable them!

Why

my swings keep getting blocked or interrupted? Their swings always seem to go through. Annoying.

Keeps spawning me in a different place.

And then they spawn you so far away from the fighting.

I did.

I

did.

Fuck it

all.

I did. Whoa, Market just tanked. What was that?

Whoa,

tanking! Do not let them ignite the powder keg! And rip him!

Eat

it.

You dead.

You dead.

Oh.

He's gonna make me bomb that ship!

Get

it, get it!

What?

He dead.

He dead.

I dead.

Bugger all,

we

win. He did.

Market tanking.

The raid on Aberfell.

Commence the raid of Aberfeld. I need level 20 Highland sword. Conquer the Highlands and destroy the heretics. Ancient stones.

The Agathians are capturing our laborers and livestock. They must be stopped. Wait, I'm the wrong class.

What? I know I'm the right— I'm Raider. Well, what was I just now? I was the Knight.

I need Raider.

Secure the peasants in their homes.

By that. Hey, don't let them touch your home.

Wow,

wow, defend the dudes! If you say so. Oh, exaltations! Go!

He dead.

What?

He

dead.

He dead.

He dead.

What?

I dead.

See

that?

They have unblocked the path of the village.

No,

I'm still alive.

I'm back! Help me!

He dead,

he dead!

Just hit my own people.

I'll death.

He did

what?

We have failed to protect the village. Oh God.

Masons, this tower is our only remaining bulwark. Defend it.

You're

dead, muscle. Whoa!

Where'd that come from?

Wow,

killed someone.

What?

You dead.

You dead.

You dead. You dead. My arms.

At it.

Wow, Muffy.

Working.

What? What?

Where's the castle?

What?

Oh.

Whoa,

flying!

We won't surrender Aberfail so easily. Protect the hamlet for the Order.

He dead. He dead. Allez, schlag ihn, Nathan!

What?

What?

Uh.

You dead. Oh, I got the greatsword!

Where's my greatsword? Oh.

Oh,

I got 2 of them!

Oh, he got me with the sword! Did you see that?

I got the greatsword.

Oh,

I

think I know how to do counterattack now.

When you hold the block, you do the same attack they do.

You're dead.

Oh man,

market's ripping.

Just cannot short it. Nearly back at £1,800. £30 away. £25 away from 1,800. Whoa, he dead.

Well, can't see it.

Ah,

£20 away from 1800s.

We win!

Those comfy Sarkathians were

Easy. I want to get the Highland sword.

The slaughter of Cockswell. Pushkin sleeping.

Brother, it is your duty to defend. I did.

Porque, porque

He dead. I need to change healing to a better button. Number 5 is hard to reach.

I did.

Take the fight to

those

archers! Defend the inhabitants! Do not—

Defend the innocent! Stop those sword bearers! See that?

Don't let them make children of the dead from the handlings!

This is nuts.

Guard the village. You're the ones that started this.

Oh, I got him.

Oh.

Kill the villagers and burn them.

He dead.

Double your efforts! Half of the village has been destroyed.

What? Where's he gone?

Ah, kept ducking.

The village is lost! Fall back to the gate!

Agathians, hold the gates! The Mason horde must not Gain access to the city. I'm number 7.

All

right.

A gate is about to be breached.

Oh, I got him! Jesus, did you see that? Fall back! I could have taken the gate.

Defend our supplies, they must not fall into the hands of the enemy.

No,

just no. Precious gold is being stolen. Put a stop to it. Follow me.

He dead.

He

dead. Fuck.

He dead.

He

dead.

I did.

But—

Ah, you babes.

Ah, mag ik tanken?

Almost all of our loot has been taken. They must not get everything.

Get it.

I did.

Arkathians, fall back and defend the market!

Oh, I got him.

I did.

Masons are taking our valuables. They must be stopped.

Brother,

dodge my ass!

Pillage the enemy stores. You dead.

Oh, how am

I not saying okay?

The enemy has completely robbed an area of loot.

He

did.

He dead.

I dead.

You dead.

What? Fall back! The enemy has overrun the city.

Reinforcements have not yet arrived. This is it. Do not go quietly. Slam!

You there? What? The garrison remains. Die with honor! Got

it.

You dead.

I'm forming a nugget ride. This is it. Do not go back.

Really?

The Battle of Dark Forest.

Wow, Market's holding up.

Sort them all out!

Hope market doesn't sell off overnight again.

Stupid Asia market. Okay, one more game. Defend yourself quickly! Escort the caravan forward! What?

Bring that convoy forward.

Make the Rangers—

What? Verily, hesitation is for the craven.

How has he one-shot me? I had full health.

Uh.

Kill it.

What? He dead. Well done.

Our caravan has reached the gatehouse.

Masons, capture that gatehouse!

You dead.

You dead.

We must take the gatehouse from the Akkadians.

Oh, Scheiße!

Grand tragedy.

Oh, he dead.

We've nearly taken the gatehouse.

Made it. Good, the gatehouse now belongs to Formation order! Quickly

Get escort the caravan forward!

it.

What?

Uh,

we

need to protect and push the caravan.

Wow, he dead, he dead, he dead. I dead.

Keep

that caravan moving. Show them.

I did.

What? Why did it spawn me here?

I can't get out.

Look.

Oh,

kill myself.

Ah, F10.

What?

Get it,

get

it.

Our caravan has reached a barricade. Look, look, old boy, no rest for the wicked.

Patience, padres, barricades.

I don't think—

I did. So outfit looks so dumb.

Keep it up! We've nearly destroyed the barricades.

All right.

Ow! Yoinks! He dead.

Well fought, we have destroyed the barricade. He dead.

Destroy that gate for the order! He dead.

I like the axe more.

Mira.

What?

Get

it.

Janky. Too bad.

Oh no, not for the— holy

I did.

What?

What?

Now, stop

it.

He dead.

He

dead.

He

dead.

I dead. He dead.

Again.

Jane, Jane, get up, get up!

He dead. What?

What? How's he able to swing so quickly?

Nations, we have destroyed the gate! What?

Kill the traitorous Duke for Morrig!

Oh,

storm the keep and kill the Duke!

It's like, poor Yen.

The grand tragedy.

Healing.

Oh,

not again.

What?

Oh, that fucking guy,

the fucking golden helmet.

Oh, I love it.

Storm the keep and kill the Duke!

Regarde,

arrête.

You

defeat and murder the traitor and shoot.

I'm dead. Ah, I'm done.